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Peer-Reviewed Articles

Vol. 31 No. 2 (2025)

Quantifying economic consequences of maritime incidents: a framework for Small Island Developing States

Submitted
December 16, 2025
Published
2025-12-18

Abstract

This study develops an economic risk assessment framework for maritime accidents within Trinidad and Tobago’s Exclusive Economic Zone, representative of Small Island Developing States. The framework integrates market and contingent valuation methods under the Total Economic Value framework with probabilistic risk modelling of drifting collisions. Consequences, expressed on a five-tier monetary scale adapted from the Simplified IALA Risk Assessment method were combined with probability estimates to quantify annual risk. Results are presented spatially, showing annualised risks of USD 30,000 to 2.48 million, highest in north-western Trinidad. The framework offers a transferable, evidence-based tool for prioritising targeted maritime risk mitigation.